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Swiss startup survival, part 11 of 12

Four scenarios for new Swiss companies to 2030

Two forces will shape survival most: how fast AI spreads, and how turbulent tariffs, energy and the franc get. My base case is an AI shake-out, with costs as the wild card, plus the signposts to watch.

Salman Shaik4 October 20263 min read

4 futuresfrom crossing AI speed with external turbulence

Data tells you what happened; strategy has to think about what could happen next. Scenario planning, made famous by Shell in the 1970s, does not try to predict a single future. It picks the two forces that matter most and are most uncertain, crosses them, and asks what each of the four resulting worlds would mean.

For new Swiss companies, the first force is how fast AI spreads. The share of SMEs consciously using AI rose from 22% to 34% in a single year.1 The second is how turbulent the outside world becomes. US tariffs on Swiss goods went from 39% in August 2025 to a 15% ceiling, then a flat 10% from February 2026, with up to 15% on pharmaceuticals from April 2026.2 Energy prices and the strength of the franc add to the uncertainty.

Turbulenttariffs, energy, franc
Cost squeezeTariffs, energy and the franc hit costs first. Hospitality, retail and Basel suppliers lose.
Double shockCosts and AI pressure hit at once. Exposed sectors fall below 50% survival.
Calmstable costs
Steady recoveryGrowth near 1.6%, survival near 50%.
AI shake-out: base caseConsulting and marketing boom, then bust. IT shifts from hours to outcomes.
Slow AI adoption
Fast AI adoption
Four scenarios to 2030. Likelihoods are my judgement.

My base case is the AI shake-out: AI adoption keeps accelerating while the economy grows moderately, as SECO’s raised forecast of 1.7% growth for 2026 suggests.3 In that world, cheap AI tools keep foundings high in consulting and marketing, many of these one-person firms close within two or three years, and IT service companies that sell hours are pushed to sell outcomes instead. The wild card is cost turbulence. If tariffs, energy prices or a stronger franc turn against Switzerland just as AI pressure grows, the double shock follows, and the most exposed sectors could fall below 50% survival.

Scenarios are not forecasts. Their value lies in what they tell you to prepare for, and which signposts to watch.

If this happens, then what

Trigger First effect Who loses, who wins Signpost
SNB rate rise of 0.25 points Slightly dearer borrowing Small effect overall SNB decision4
Higher US pharma tariffs Big pharma cuts costs Basel suppliers and labs lose US rulings, pharma results
A stronger franc More shopping and holidays abroad Hospitality, retail, exporters lose EUR/CHF
AI agents mature quickly Less paid office and basic IT work AI-native firms win BFS foundings by industry
AI valuations correct Fewer AI rounds Capital returns to non-AI startups AI share of venture capital
Bankruptcy-law effect fades Bankruptcy numbers fall Headlines call it a recovery Creditreform, D&B

Likelihoods and effects are my own judgement based on the study.

The chains connect. A stronger franc, high energy prices and AI pressure can hit the same small firm in the same year, and that compounding is what turns a difficult year into a closure. The full scenario analysis is in sections 14 and 15 of the study.

  1. AXA and Sotomo SME study, via the federal SME portal. ↩

  2. economiesuisse, US tariffs and the Swiss economy. ↩

  3. SECO, Economic forecasts, September 2026. ↩

  4. KOF forecast and SNB outlook, via finews. ↩

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